By Patrick O'Driscoll
USA Today
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All Rights Reserved

DENVER — Fire scientists preparing this year's national wildfire forecast don't expect much of a reprieve from 2006, the worst fire season in half a century.

An average or above-average year is likely, including more fires in parts of Southern California not already scorched in recent years, said Rick Ochoa, fire weather program manager at the National Interagency Fire Center in Idaho. Potential hotspots could include the Great Basin states of Nevada and Utah, and Arizona if unpredictable summer monsoons miss the state.

Those areas are locked in a pattern of widespread dryness, warmer temperatures and an early melting of mountain snow in the West, Ochoa said Thursday. He is among about 30 fire experts meeting this week in Boulder, Colo., to draft the fire outlook. The four-day session ends today.

The forecast is due out on Tuesday.

Although much of the USA may see normal conditions, a continuing worry now is the Southeast, where severe to extreme drought grips parts of Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Mississippi. A 61,000-acre blaze in Georgia has burned for more than 11 days and was only 50% contained Thursday.

"I would be very surprised if we had a light fire season," said Ochoa, who sketched out the factors likely to influence the forecast:

*Summer heat. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center sees a warmer-than-usual spring and summer in the West. If that holds true, "the probability of a big fire season in places like the Northwest, the Northern Rockies and Idaho is going to go up quite a bit," Ochoa said.

*Dead forests. Bark beetle infestations continue in Colorado, Idaho and British Columbia. Dead or dying trees make abundant fuel for fires, but Ochoa said those trees are more fire-prone in the first year. Needles still on the branches make trees torches for fires to race through the treetops.

*"Carry-over" fuels. Ochoa said Nevada has above-normal fire potential because of "carry-over" grass and brush that sprouted in the wet winters of 2005 and 2006 and are ready to burn after a dry winter.

*Uncertain monsoons. The annual midsummer storms in the Southwest rarely hit Arizona and New Mexico equally, Ochoa said. Arizona needs moisture, while New Mexico had a decent winter. "It's really tough for us to call, and it will make a huge difference," Ochoa added. And if the monsoons are late or weak, fire season could be worse.

*Alaskan temperatures. Fall, winter and spring were dry in the state's interior. If temperatures are warmer than normal in May and June, that is "really going to tell the tale for their fire season," Ochoa said.

Five of the seven worst fire seasons in the past half-century have been since 2000. Last year's damage was the worst: 9.9 million acres burned.