By John Arnold
Albuquerque Journal (New Mexico)
Copyright 2007 Albuquerque Journal
ALBEQUERQUE, N.M. — Experts continue to predict a normal to below-normal fire season for most of New Mexico, according to an updated forecast issued Monday.
That’s good news compared to the dire predictions issued last year, when parched conditions fueled warnings of a dangerous fire season.
State and federal forest officials, who credit public vigilance for preventing catastrophic fires last year, worry that this year’s rosier outlook could make people ease up.
“Complacency is our biggest enemy, because when people become complacent they can become careless,” state Forestry Division spokesman Dan Ware said.
While mountainous areas of the state will benefit from much-improved snowpack levels, lower elevations in eastern and southern New Mexico are already drying out, according to Ware.
The Forestry Division has received more than 150 reports of wildfires since Jan. 1 and is preparing for a normal fire season, he said.
Santa Fe National Forest spokeswoman Dolores Maese said that fire restrictions, or even partial forest closures, are possible this summer, depending on weather conditions.
“We will always have a fire season. That’s just the nature of the Southwest,” she said.
Last year, the Santa Fe National Forest implemented fire restrictions beginning in April but held off on closures, in part due to the public’s adherence to those restrictions.
“Hopefully, people will learn from last year that they can be the reason we don’t have big fires,” Maese said.
Monday’s updated forecast was issued by the inter-agency Southwest Coordination Center, an Albuquerque-based fire information hub for New Mexico and Arizona.
The outlook for most of New Mexico is mostly unchanged from the center’s January forecast, which predicts normal to below-normal fire activity.
Fire season, normally April through July in the Southwest, will start late and end slightly later than usual, the forecast says.
“The further east and north you go, the more below normal (fire activity) you’re looking at,” fire meteorologist Chuck Maxwell said.
But the outlook isn’t as good for Arizona and the Four Corners, where the potential for wildfires is above normal, according to the center’s forecast.
The Arizona forecast has changed since January, because the area received below-normal precipitation when above-normal precipitation had been forecast, according to the coordination center, which will issue a complete fire season outlook in late April.