Copyright 2006 Denver Publishing Company
By TODD HARTMAN and DEBORAH FRAZIER
Rocky Mountain News (Colorado)
Crispy-dry conditions along Colorado’s Front Range, eastern Plains and southern regions have created the potential for a harrowing wildfire season, possibly on par with the devastating years of 2000 and 2002, according to newly assembled government predictions.
Colorado’s mountains have received abundant snows this winter, but the state’s eastern and southern regions have missed the watery bounty, leaving those areas at “above-average” risk for large fires, government fire watchers say.
One key measure, called “energy release component” or ERC values, that describes the fire susceptibility in grasses, forest litter and dead and downed trees, is at historic highs in lower elevations of Colorado, said Larry Helmerick, a spokesman for the Rocky Mountain Area Coordination Center.
“Basically, we’re comparing (ERC values in) 2006 to 2000,” Helmerick said. “We expect it to be worse than 2000; it could be worse than 2002,” the year infamous for the monstrous Hayman Fire that incinerated 138,000 acres and 132 homes, while burning parts of four counties southwest of Denver.
“We don’t want to scare the public too much, but we want them to be aware,” he said of preliminary predictions posted online Thursday evening by the Lakewood-based RMACC, which brings a variety of government agencies together to predict and fight wildfires.
As if on cue, the National Weather Service issued a red flag warning Thursday for the entire eastern half of Colorado, from the Front Range east to Kansas and Nebraska. Forecasters raise a red flag when high temperatures combine with low humidity and high winds to significantly boost the risk of wildfire.
“It’s done on days when you’re expecting conditions to reach a point where they’re of grave concern to the firefighting community, as well as everyone else,” said meteorologist Rob Krohn of the National Weather Service office in Denver.
Thursday’s high of 85 degrees in Denver broke the previous record for April 13 set in 1992. It was the latest in a string of uncharacteristically dry, warm days in a month usually among the Front Range’s wettest.
“You don’t see too many dry Aprils,” Krohn said, noting that precipitation in Denver is only 0.14 of an inch for April so far, below the average of three-quarters of an inch of moisture that usually falls on the area by this date. “It’s kind of a poor start to spring as far as precipitation goes.”
The latest fire-danger predictions note that “abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions exist across the entire Front Range, and portions of the southern and southwest part of the state,” and that drought conditions have “worsened” in those regions over the past year.
Although the report notes that above-average snowpack accumulated over the state’s northern and central mountains, “significant moisture deficits are noted generally below 9,000 feet east of the (Continental Divide) and portions of southern Colorado.”
Winter season already busy
Colorado already has seen a busy winter fire season, with about 42,000 acres burned so far this year; that compares with 70,000 acres scorched across the state through all of 2005, Helmerick said.
Those fires include nearly 18,000 acres in the Front Range counties of Jefferson, Pueblo and Huerfano, said Rich Homman, fire division supervisor for the Colorado State Forest Service.
The Pueblo area, like the Denver region, is suffering from a moisture shortfall, with 1.14 inches since January compared with an average of 2.04 inches for this time of year, said Richard Grieggs, section manager for the National Weather Service office in Pueblo.
People do ‘stupid things’
“We’ve had quite a few red flag warnings this year. It’s our breeziest time of year. The grasses are dry and with a little bit of wind, it gets quite volatile,” Grieggs said. “When we put out a red flag warning, we hope people won’t throw cigarettes out the window or try to burn weeds. There’s a bunch of stupid things people do.”
In all, 73 fires have been reported in the eastern plains and the foothills of the Front Range since the beginning of the year, and 71 of them were human caused, said Polly White, spokeswoman for the state’s Division of Emergency Management.
The earliest sign of a dicey fire season came Jan. 9, when Gov. Bill Owens issued a midwinter burn ban for 30 days on account of dry conditions.
Since then, the governor’s office made $358,000 available to help counties fight fires, money not typically released until April. Next week, Owens expects to make an additional $2.7 million available, following the governor’s annual fire season briefing, scheduled April 19, said his spokesman, Dan Hopkins.
Not all of the wildfire news was bad. The new predictions noted that spring green-up in late April could reduce fire potential. Firefighters are also pinning hopes on forecasts that the monsoon season in the southwestern United States could come early this year - by the end of June - which could also cut fire risk in Colorado.
While wary of wildfires, state emergency officials also have an eye on flooding potential, with healthy snowpacks in many northern and central mountain counties.