Experts are concerned wildfires could rage in Florida in 2007
By Tom Bayles
Sarasota Herald-Tribune (Florida)
Copyright 2006 Sarasota Herald-Tribune Co.
All Rights Reserved
The lack of hurricane strikes this year in Florida was an unexpected but welcome turn of events, but it might have left people with homes in the Sunshine State’s more woodsy settings at perhaps an even greater risk.
Despite some relatively light rains last week, the soil in Southwest Florida remain parched.
Adding to the risk are the millions of tons of fallen trees, splintered limbs and an unknown amount of household debris hurled into the woods by Hurricane Charley in 2004 and the big storms that followed.
The downed trees are called “blowdown,” and it means extreme wildfire fuel is littering the forests — and blocking the trails wildland firefighters need to do their job.
“We’ve managed to do a little treatment here and there, but it is such a widespread problem it’s going to take a couple of more years,” said Rick Christman, the Florida Division of Forestry’s Charlotte County supervisor. “Right now, I’m concerned.”
Also concerning those who pay attention to wildfire trends is the pattern unfolding now, which mimics the events prior to the devastating 1998 wildfire season that scorched 500,000 acres and damaged or destroyed 300 homes and businesses.
More than 130,000 people had to evacuate their homes.
Late 1997 was dry. Early 1998 was extremely wet, thanks to the same type of El Nino expected in early 2007. But the ocean phenomenon that sends warmer-than-normal water to the eastern Pacific Ocean faded quickly, and by May the state was parched and huge blazes followed.
“This season fits the same pattern,” Christman said. “We’ll have to see what the outcome is.”
Wildfires are an important part of Florida’s natural ecosystem — burning, then rejuvenating, its forests.
But the state’s burgeoning population and development has meant that more and more wooded areas are near homes.
To help keep wildfires in the wild, Sarasota County fire mitigation officials have burned more than 600 acres since October in places such as the T. Mabry Carlton Preserve north of North Port, the Pinelands Reserve by the county landfill near Nokomis, and in the Lemon Bay Preserve in Venice.
“So far it’s pretty dry. We’ve had a dry fall,” said Jay Bailey, the county’s burn supervisor. “And if that is any indication of the spring, it could be a tough fire season.”
Deborah Hanley, a meteorologist at the Division of Forestry’s Tallahassee headquarters, said the problem is statewide.
“The state is in a pretty dry condition right now. Much drier than normal,” Hanley said. “If the wet winter we are forecasting doesn’t come through, we’re going to have some problems.”
Some places in the state have a 20-inch rainfall deficit, Hanley said.
“The outlook still says wet winter, but it hasn’t shown up yet. There is still a lot of hope the end of December and January will get wet, which will help.”
UPDATE
THE NEWS SO FAR: Wildfire activity in Florida was dampened during the heavy hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005.
WHAT’S NEW: Hurricanes left the state alone this year, and during the last four months of 2006, wildfire activity in Florida has increased with 478 blazes scorching 3,052 acres. That’s up from the five-year average of 330 fires burning 1,635 acres during the same period.
WHAT’S NEXT: Firefighters fear that even if the forecast of a rainy winter proves true, things will quickly dry out as they did preceding the devastating 1999 wildfire season, which also occurred after a very wet start to the year.