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Calgary Fire community risk index: Use of data case study

Building a risk-based model that connects incident data, demographics and outcomes to guide decision-making

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The Center for Public Safety Excellence and the IAFC’s Metro Chiefs section partnered to develop a series highlighting proven practices of Metro departments accredited by CPSE’s Commission on Fire Accreditation International. Developed by the CPSE Center for Innovation staff, each case study outlines the opportunity the agency faces, the actions they took, the outcomes of their efforts, and provides tips for replication.


Accredited in 1999, the Calgary Fire Department (CFD) developed and managed a robust planning and data analytics process to assess current and future service demands, trends and outcomes throughout the community. Through this process, the department staff developed a detailed community risk assessment/standards of cover (CRA/SOC) document that examines the:

  • Fire and non-fire risks in the community;
  • Risk-reduction efforts used to mitigate those risks;
  • Demographics of the individual communities served by the fire department;
  • Identification of the resources needed to abate emergent incidents safely; and
  • Development and monitoring of appropriate deployment practices.

The opportunity

Already a data-driven agency, the CFD sought to expand on that institutionalized practice by examining the community’s risk and developing mitigation strategies.

Starting in 2015, the department reviewed its processes as a part of the continual improvement model. As a result, it received input from external agencies and consultants that essentially asked how department members could use the CRA/SOC as a foundation to examine the value the community received compared to the cost of the resources used to deliver services. It further explored the results and outcomes of the services provided. Additionally, the department looked at how the CRA/SOC could be further developed as a tool for using a risk-based approach to targeting key areas and demographic groups.

Internal discussions started with adopting a methodology based on best-practice risk models, which was approved by an internal group of subject-matter experts and adjusted as needed. This guided the research work and the project’s overall direction. At the same time, a parallel conversation regarding data literacy ensued. Gartner defines this as, “Having the ability to read, write and communicate data in context, including an understanding of data sources and constructs, analytical methods and techniques applied, and the ability to describe the use case, application, and resulting value.” In other words, everyone within the organization would know what data was being captured and how that data would be used. This extends from the front-line responders, the primary source of some of the collected data, to the end-user viewing the data analysis.

The action

Based in part on Calgary City Council feedback, Fire Chief Steve Dongworth directed staff to collaborate with other city departments and external stakeholder agencies to expand the array of social and historical response activity data points to create a more comprehensive community risk assessment.

The project was titled “Community Risk Index” and was led by the Strategic Services team. The project team included internal subject-matter experts and Executive Fire Leadership Team input. Members from across the department were engaged with the methodology and the timeline, including input into the index’s weighting. In addition, the model was shared with and approved by the fire chief and Executive Leadership team.

A literature review, which utilized Fire Engineering and information from the Fiscal Policy Institute, took up the first half of 2016, along with published best practice documents available at the time. In addition, interviews were conducted with the leaders of the San Jose (CA), Los Angeles, and Toronto fire departments to learn from their experiences. Project managers also relied upon CFD data, available through the internal records management system. External sociodemographic sources were also used, such as the data/software “Environics” and the National Household Survey.

Best practices were also reviewed, as was information from the NFPA, Insurance Services Office (Verisk), Commission on Fire Accreditation International (CFAI), and the Municipal Benchmarking Network – Canada (MBN). Finally, a survey, led by the department but facilitated through Metroplanners/Comparative Canadian Cities, was initiated.

In the fourth quarter of 2016, project planners piloted the initial version of the Community Risk Index, which used specific criteria. The project team developed weightings of a community risk index, which was a part of the project. The initial evaluation of at-risk communities was sent to the CFD Community Safety Section (CSS) to implement the Index and reach out to the identified at-risk communities in Calgary.

Index performance metrics

  • Number and type of fire & EMS incidents
  • Response time performance (Fire & Critical Medical Interventions)
  • Dollar loss of fires
  • Response reliability of first-due resources
  • Flame spread
  • Number of injuries due to fires
  • Number of deaths due to fires

The CSS comprises four staff members and provides risk-based education to vulnerable populations in Calgary, including new Canadians, lower-income individuals, seniors, children, and individuals with disabilities. It also develops and manages the more extensive public-facing programs where firefighters are expected to provide community engagement and education. CSS is one of three service lines in the CFD, including Fire & Emergency Response, Fire Inspection & Enforcement, and Fire Safety Education.

The outcome

The Community Risk Index enhanced the existing CFD service level response time targets (SLRTT) by adding new outcome-based measures and emphasizing current ones. It has allowed more focus on criteria such as flame spread, fire loss, and the number of fire injuries and deaths. Risk-based, the index also emphasizes risk factors such as demographics, including age and income, age of the building, and high-risk factors based on the community risk assessment and historical response time analysis to help plan for future response.

Following the project completion, the CSS incorporated the assessment into its programming to assist in delivering education to the communities most in need and at the highest risk. The assessment includes criteria from the NFPA’s 1300 (5.3.2) profiles, adding factors and local data from other pertinent sources.

Only minor additions have been made to the index since its inception. Still, the staff is currently looking at ways to filter the list of profiles to provide an even more detailed way of identifying those communities in need.

With some 26 measures in the index, CFD intends to work on a process to streamline the workload around the process, focusing on optimizing the workload and becoming more effective and efficient. They have found that the Community Risk Index has been underutilized. In retrospect, more than just CSS should have used this information. Engaging with CFD Inspections, Community Safety, and Operations in the future, the Community Risk Index could / should grow and be utilized even more.

Tips for replication

  • Focus on your current performance measures and census to develop an index.
  • Develop a working group to determine what measures should be incorporated into the index and each measure’s “weight/importance.”
  • Focus on what data is currently accessible to the agency (no cost/funding associated).
  • Conduct surveys to determine the best practices of departments like your organization.
  • Include a process for the timely update/maintenance of your index.
  • Consider a way to streamline the process.

Additional resources

More from the CPSE Center for Innovation
The Strategic Scan details the drivers of program development as well as key considerations for program design and funding
A real-world look at how one Colorado fire district is growing leaders through intentional mentorship, administrative rotations and professional development
GRFD used a fleet scorecard, stock and used apparatus purchases, and an in-house EVT program to stabilize operations and reset its replacement plan
A shift from closed-door goal setting to data-driven, inclusive planning helped IFD move from stalled initiatives to accredited, measurable progress
The CPSE Center for Innovation Strategic Scan proposes six actionable takeaways related to apparatus purchasing challenges

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