By Scott Roseberry
“Will artificial intelligence ever take over our jobs?” This is a question I get asked a lot when I give presentations on fire service technology. The best answer I can give you, or that anyone can give you, is “maybe.” This is a far more complex question than we realize, and nobody knows for sure what the future holds. Additionally, before we can even begin to consider the question, we have to understand how AI works in its current form.
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How does AI work?
AI is essentially a computer program that uses probabilities to answer questions and create content based on prompts. Before it can do this, it has to learn. AI learns by being shown lots of examples and adjusting its guesses based on whether it was right or wrong — kind of like getting feedback from a teacher. For example, let’s say you want to teach AI what a cat is. You show it pictures of cats, and you tell it, “This is a cat.” The AI starts to notice things:
- Cats have pointy ears
- They have whiskers
- They’re furry
- They meow
Eventually, when you show it a new picture that it’s never seen, it can recognize, “that looks like a cat!” If AI guesses it wrong, a human corrects it, and it remembers its mistake.
Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have learned in similar ways. Instead of pictures of cats, it learned from literature, namely free literature available online. The different AI engines have been exposed to different literature and therefore the different answers and content they develop. From the prompts input, AI uses the most probable answer from what it has learned. This is called generative AI.
Generative AI doesn’t have the ability to think, understand emotions or have feelings. Generative AI will never be able to replace a human, but it can greatly augment our work and daily lives.
The shift to general AI and robotics
The next step in the AI revolution is general AI, which hasn’t been developed yet. General AI will be able to do anything a person can do. It will be able to talk, think, solve puzzles, learn new things on its own, and understand jokes and feelings — think Jarvis from the “Iron Man” movie franchise. General AI has the possibility of doing what we do, but can it do so with the same compassion and reasoning abilities we have? This question is yet to be determined.
Then there’s the question of robotics. Although the advances in robotics have been monumental, we still have a long way to go before they have the dexterity to operate in the conditions we do. Boston Dynamics has developed biped robotics with the ability to walk and climb stairs, but this still doesn’t compare the environment we work in.
Ethical use of AI
The final consideration in the initial question comes back to the ethical use of AI. At what point do we trust AI to make life-or-death decisions? Current LLMs can sometimes make up information — this is called a hallucination — because they’re trying to sound confident based on patterns in the data, even when there isn’t a real answer.
Will general AI hallucinate also? Since it hasn’t been developed, no one knows. In the movie “I, Robot,” Will Smith’s character is saved by a robot over a child because it calculated the probability his character had a greater chance of survival. This is a very real possibility with general AI robots. An AI robot will also never understand why we go back to mow Mr. Smith’s yard after we transported him to the hospital, or when we go the extra mile because it’s not only the right thing to do, but the human thing to do.
What’s now — and next?
So, what should we do about our job concerns? First, take a breath. If general AI ever replaces us, it will be years and years, even decades, in the future — and it will not be an overnight exchange. More than likely, an AI robot will help supplement your crew and be a valued team member handling mundane and routine tasks like checking hydrants, documenting, preplanning, etc. Until then, have fun with it, and take advantage of the time savings it can give you by reducing your workload, giving you back your work-life balance.
Not sure where to begin? Many forward-thinking departments are putting AI to good use in myriad ways. For example, LLMs are perfect for writing policies and procedures. With the right prompting, you can save hours of work writing lengthy procedures. AI is also capable of helping you analyze data. Drop a spreadsheet into the engine to produce heatmaps, line graphs and pie charts, calculate unit hour utilization, and perform a host of analytics that use to take hours and complex calculations. LLMs even have the ability to turn your incident audio files into transcripts, then compare the transcripts to your policies and procedures to produce an after-action report.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Scott Roseberry is a battalion chief with the Garland (Texas) Fire Department who has more than 25 years of experience in the fire service. He has a bachelor’s degree in emergency management and a master’s degree in public administration. Roseberry holds the designations of Executive Fire Officer, Certified Public Manager, Chief Fire Officer, Fire Service Chief Executive Officer and Chief Fire Executive. He is the chairperson of the International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC) Technology Council and a member of the FEMA Region 6 Regional Advisory Council and serves on the Department of Homeland Security First Responder Resource Group. Roseberry is a frequent presenter at the IAFC’s Fire-Rescue International and Technology Summit International.